Predicting risk of recidivism in Spanish young offenders: Comparative analysis of the SAVRY and YLS/CMI

Abstract

Background: This study offers a comparative analysis of evidence for the predictive validity of SAVRY and YLS/CMI scores in predicting risk of recidivism in a group of young people who received a Juvenile Justice order. Methods: The sample was made up of 594 youths aged between 14 and 18 (M=15.63, SD=1.08) at the time they committed an offense. Results: Both instruments showed high accuracy in predicting recidivism, with the greatest accuracy observed in the SAVRY and YLS/CMI total scores, as well as in the Individual domain of the SAVRY. Comparative analysis of the AUCs of both instruments indicated no statistically signifi cant differences between total scores from the two instruments. Results showed statistically signifi cant differences in comparisons of means and AUCs between the groups of young reoffenders and non-reoffenders in all cases. Our results did not support the hypothesis that dynamic risk factors are a better predictors of recidivism in young offenders. Conclusions: This study offers empirical evidence of the predictive capacity and differential functioning of the SAVRY and YLS/CMI instruments in the Spanish context.