Machine Learning Regularization Methods in High-Dimensional Monetary and Financial VARs
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2022-03-10Abstract
Vector autoregressions (VARs) and their multiple variants are standard models in economic and financial research due to their power for forecasting, data analysis and inference. These properties are a consequence of their capabilities to include multiple variables and lags which, however, turns into an exponential growth of the parameters to be estimated. This means that high-dimensional models with multiple variables and lags are difficult to estimate, leading to omitted variables, information biases and a loss of potential forecasting power. Traditionally, the existing literature has resorted to factor analysis, and specially, to Bayesian methods to overcome this situation. This paper explores the so-called machine learning regularization methods as an alternative to traditional methods of forecasting and impulse response analysis. We find that regularization structures, which allow for high dimensional models, perform better than standard Bayesian methods in nowcasting and forecasti...
Palabra/s clave
VAR
machine learning
LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator)
regularization methods
sparsity
monetary economics
financial economics