The Fate of Endemic Species Specialized in Island Habitat under Climate Change in a Mediterranean High Mountain
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Mendoza Fernández, Antonio Jesús; Fernández-Ceular, Ángel; Alcaraz Segura, Domingo; Ballesteros, Miguel; Peñas, JulioFecha
2022-11-22Resumen
Mediterranean high-mountain endemic species are particularly vulnerable to climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and snow-cover dynamics. Sierra Nevada (Spain) is a biodiversity hotspot in the western Mediterranean, with an enormous plant species richness and endemicity. Moehringia fontqueri is a threatened endemic plant restricted to north-facing siliceous rocks along a few ridges of the eastern Sierra Nevada. To guide conservation actions against climate change effects, here we propose the simultaneous assessment of the current reproductive success and the possible species’ range changes between current and future climatic conditions, assessing separately different subpopulations by altitude. Reproductive success was tested through the seed-set data analysis. The species’ current habitat suitability was modeled in Maxent using species occurrences, topographic, satellite and climatic variables. Future habitat suitability was carried out for two climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6 and...
Palabra/s clave
diversity loss
fine-scale ecological niche modeling
global change
Moehringia fontqueri
mountain cliff escarpments
reproductive success
Sierra Nevada (Spain)