A Causal Analysis of Life Expectancy at Birth. Evidence from Spain

Abstract

Background: From a causal point of view, there exists a set of socioeconomic indicators concerning life expectancy. The objective of this paper is to determine the indicators which exhibit a relation of causality with life expectancy at birth. Methods: Our analysis applies the Granger causality test, more specifically its version by Dumitrescu–Hurlin, starting from the information concerning life expectancy at birth and a set of socioeconomic variables corresponding to 17 Spanish regions, throughout the period 2006–2016. To do this, we used the panel data involving the information provided by the Spanish Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs and Social Welfare (MHCSW) and the National Institute of Statistics (NIS). Results: Per capita income, and the rate of hospital beds, medical staff and nurses Granger-cause the variable “life expectancy at birth”, according to the Granger causality test applied to panel data (Dumitrescu–Hurlin’s version). Conclusions: Life expectancy at birth has become one of the main indicators able to measure the performance of a country’s health system. This analysis facilitates the identification of those factors which exhibit a unidirectional Granger-causality relationship with life expectancy at birth. Therefore, this paper provides useful information for the management of public health resources from the point of view of the maximization of social benefits.