The Hydrological Balance in Micro-Watersheds Is Affected by Climate Change and Land Use Changes
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Ruiz-García, Víctor H.; Asensio Grima, Carlos Manuel; Ramírez-García, A. Guillermo; Monterroso-Rivas, Alejandro IsmaelDate
2023-02-15Abstract
Temperate forests are key to the balance and provision of hydrological and environmental services. Currently, these forests are subject to human alterations as well as to the effects of global change, including warming, variability, deforestation, and forest fires. As a consequence, the hydrological balance has been modified. The present study simulates the effects of climate change and land use change on the hydrological balance of micro-watersheds in Mexico using the hydrological model Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP). The land use change between 1995 and 2021 was estimated to establish a baseline. Climate scenario SSP585 was projected using three global models, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, and CNRM-CM6-1 by the 2081–2100 horizon, along with two scenarios of land use change: one with forest permanence and another with loss of forest cover and increased forest fires. Results indicate that future climatic conditions will modify the hydrological balance at the microbasin level. E...
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hydrological scenarios
general circulation models
WEAP
runoff
base flow