Modelling relationships between socioeconomy, landscape and water flows in Mediterranean agroecosystems: a case study in Adra catchment (Spain) using Bayesian networks
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2019Resumen
In Mediterranean areas, the co-evolution between social and natural systems has given rise to heterogeneous and complex systems of interactions called agroecosystems, in which strong relationships between socioeconomy, landscape and water flows have been identified. In this context, water resources management is a prominent area of research, particularly in semi-arid conditions, where a special set of challenges requires novel tools to deal with uncertainty, multiple sources of information and expert knowledge. In this paper, Bayesian Networks are proposed as a means to model the relationships between socioeconomy, landscape and water flows in a Mediterranean agroecosystem, studying its behaviour under two scenarios of change in land use trends: maintenance of traditional Mediterranean agriculture, and agricultural intensification through the development of greenhouses. Results show that an increase in the area of traditional agriculture would lead to better control of runoff and incre...
Palabra/s clave
Bayesian networks
Green and blue water
Kullback–Leibler divergence
Landscape change trends
Mediterranean agroecosystems
Sensitivity analysis