Detecting social‑ecological resilience thresholds of cultural landscapes along an urban–rural gradient: a methodological approach based on Bayesian Networks
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Arnaiz-Schmitz, Cecilia; Aguilera Aguilera, Pedro; Fernández Ropero, Rosa María; Schmitz García, María FeFecha
2023Resumen
Context: The difficulty of analysing resilience and threshold responses to changing environmental drivers
becomes evident in the social-ecological systems framework due to their inherent complexity. Research
is needed to develop new tools able to deal with such challenges and determine potential thresholds for
SES variables that primarily influence tipping point behaviour.
Objectives: In this paper, a methodology based on the application of Bayesian Networks (BNs) has been
developed to quantify the social-ecological resilience along an urban–rural gradient in Madrid Region,
detecting the tipping point values of the main socioeconomic indicators implying critical transitions at
landscape stability thresholds.
Method: To do this, the spatial–temporal trends of the landscape in an urban–rural gradient from Region
de Madrid (Spain) were identified, to then quantify the intensity of the changes and explain them using
BNs based on regression models. Finally, through inference propa...
Palabra/s clave
Social-ecological planning
Tipping points
Traditional ecological knowledge
Landscape–socioeconomic interactions
Landscape vulnerability
Innovative methodological approach